{"id":88938,"date":"2026-08-12T16:28:46","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T06:28:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/?p=88938"},"modified":"2026-08-12T16:28:47","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T06:28:47","slug":"trade-eurusd-on-the-us-cpi-data-release","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/trade-eurusd-on-the-us-cpi-data-release\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade EURUSD on the US CPI Data Release"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Foreign exchange traders are preparing to turn their attention back to key US fundamental data early in the New York session when this week\u2019s key data release is scheduled. Traders experienced a big shock on Friday when US employment data came out much lower than expected and if that is backed up by a weaker than expected inflation update when CPI numbers are released then we could see some strong moves in the market as Fed rate expectations are recalibrated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market is expecting the headline CPI numbers to show a 0.2% month-on-month increase with the year-on-year number printing a 3.4% increase while the more closely watched Core data is expected to show 0.2% and 2.5% increases, respectively. Anything just +\/- 0.1% off these expectations is likely to see some substantial moves in the market with anything weaker pushing fundamentals to indicate that the Fed may have to pull back on any rate hike thoughts at the next meeting, currently priced in as a 50% chance. While a stronger print could wipe out the impact of Friday\u2019s Non-Farm update to see the dollar rally strongly, especially given recent updates from the Middle East pushing up inflationary concerns due to anticipated global energy supply issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Euro is sitting well placed for a big move on any deviation from the expected prints, sitting just south of good resistance levels on the daily chart. A stronger print would allow traders to enter short positions and use those resistance levels for stops, while a weaker print could see break trades employed to allow the pair to move up into fresh higher ranges. Geopolitical concerns will come into play for the trade as well and if the data print coincides with them, then these moves could extend rapidly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resistance 2: 1.1629 \u2013 200 Day Moving Average<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resistance 1: 1.1580 \u2013 August High and Trendline Resistance<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Support 1: 1.1391 \u2013 Trendline Support<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Support 2: 1.1324 \u2013 2026 Low<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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Risk Warning:<\/strong> Trading in securities involves significant risk. Prices may fluctuate and securities can become entirely valueless. You may incur losses that exceed your potential profits, and in some cases, losses may exceed the amount you have deposited. Securities, futures, options, and contracts for differences are complex financial instruments and are not suitable for all investors. Engaging in such transactions requires a sound understanding of the associated risks. Please read and ensure you fully understand our Risk Disclosure<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our leverage is dynamic and may change at any time. Such changes may affect your positions and margin requirements. You are responsible for monitoring your positions and maintaining sufficient margin at all times<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Foreign exchange traders are preparing to turn their attention back to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":88940,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[462],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88938"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=88938"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88938\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":88941,"href":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88938\/revisions\/88941"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/88940"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=88938"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=88938"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=88938"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}