{"id":89596,"date":"2026-09-03T19:41:44","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T09:41:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/?p=89596"},"modified":"2026-09-03T19:42:19","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T09:42:19","slug":"ic-asia-fundamental-forecast-03-september-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/ic-asia-fundamental-forecast-03-september-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"IC &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 03 September 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>IC &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 03 September 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What happened in the U.S. session?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Weaker-than-expected ADP employment data increased concerns about a slowing labour market and initially weighed on the dollar, while renewed U.S.\u2013Iran tensions pushed oil higher and kept inflation fears alive.<br \/><br \/>Elevated Treasury yields continued to pressure gold and rate-sensitive assets, while equities remained relatively resilient thanks to strong AI-related sentiment. For the next session, U.S. Unemployment Claims and ISM Services PMI are the key releases to watch, with stronger-than-expected data likely supporting the USD and yields, while weaker data could reinforce expectations for easier Fed policy.<br \/><br \/><strong>What does it mean for the Asia Session?<\/strong><br \/><br \/>The main theme for Asian traders on Thursday is shifting central-bank expectations combined with geopolitical risk. The yen could remain supported by increasingly hawkish BOJ expectations, while the stronger Australian GDP and improving Chinese manufacturing data provide a positive backdrop for the AUD. At the same time, renewed U.S.-Iran tensions are keeping oil prices and inflation expectations elevated, supporting the dollar but creating headwinds for risk assets and gold.\u200b<br \/><strong>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>ISM Services PMI (2:00 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/><strong>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Geopolitical risk, elevated oil prices, rising Treasury yields and increased Fed rate-hike expectations are all working in its favour. However, the weaker-than-expected ADP employment report is an important warning sign. Today&#8217;s Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI will therefore be key for determining whether the current USD strength can continue. A strong ISM\/claims combination could push the dollar higher, while disappointing data could trigger a correction, especially with the August NFP report due Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%\u20133.75% at its July 28\u201329, 2026, meeting, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a policy change. The Committee voted 9\u20133 to maintain rates, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point rate hike, highlighting growing concern among some policymakers that inflation remains too high.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee reaffirmed its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. Officials noted that the labor market remains resilient, with job gains broadly keeping pace with labor force growth and the unemployment rate remaining relatively stable. The FOMC continues to view employment conditions as consistent with a healthy economy while remaining vigilant for signs of labor market weakening.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation remains the Committee&#8217;s primary concern. While some recent inflation data have shown moderation, overall price pressures remain above the Fed&#8217;s 2% target. Policymakers emphasized that elevated inflation continues to be driven in part by higher energy prices and persistent supply-side pressures, leading the Committee to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty. Strong productivity growth, business investment, and continued spending related to artificial intelligence remain supportive of economic growth. However, the FOMC acknowledged that geopolitical tensions, particularly developments affecting global energy markets, continue to pose risks to both inflation and the broader economic outlook.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The July meeting highlighted increasing divisions within the Committee. Three policymakers\u2014Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan\u2014voted against the majority, preferring an immediate rate increase. This unusually large number of dissents reflects growing concern among some officials that inflation could remain persistent and may require additional policy tightening if progress stalls.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated that future policy decisions will remain strictly data-dependent. He avoided providing explicit forward guidance, emphasizing that upcoming decisions will depend on incoming inflation, employment, and growth data. Warsh also stressed that the Committee remains fully committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective and is prepared to act if inflationary pressures intensify.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The FOMC continues its balance sheet normalization program without changes. The Federal Reserve will maintain Treasury runoff caps at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) runoff caps at $35 billion per month, while continuing to ensure ample reserves remain available within the banking system.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is scheduled for 15 to 16 September 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gold (XAU)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>ISM Services PMI (2:00 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/XAUUSD\/?exchange=ICMARKETS\" title=\"\">Gold<\/a> is bearish today as the stronger dollar, rising Treasury yields, higher oil prices, and increasing Fed rate-hike expectations outweigh the traditional safe-haven demand from geopolitical tensions. The key event to watch is the U.S. ADP employment report; a strong reading could accelerate the decline, while a significant miss could provide gold with some relief. For now, $4,300 is an important psychological area, while the former 200-day moving average near $4,528 is a major resistance reference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Strong Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from AUD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stronger-than-expected Australian GDP has increased expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could raise interest rates again. Australia\u2019s economy grew 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, above the 0.3% forecast, while annual growth reached 2.1% versus 1.8% expected. Markets have consequently increased the probability of an RBA hike at its September meeting.<br \/><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain a cautious, data-dependent policy stance heading into its September 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting. The Cash Rate Target remains at 4.35%, following three increases earlier in 2026. The RBA has indicated that monetary policy needs to remain sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back toward the 2\u20133% target while allowing the Board to assess the effects of previous tightening on household demand, employment and economic activity.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation remains the central issue for the September meeting, although headline price pressures have continued to moderate. Australia&#8217;s CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year in June 2026, down from 4.0% in May, while trimmed-mean inflation remained at 3.6%. This suggests that underlying inflation is proving more persistent than headline inflation and remains above the RBA&#8217;s 2\u20133% target band. Housing costs continue to be an important source of inflationary pressure, while the end of some electricity rebates has also contributed significantly to household costs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The August and September inflation data will be particularly important for determining the RBA&#8217;s next move. The ABS is scheduled to release July 2026 CPI on 26 August, giving policymakers a fresh inflation reading before the September meeting. The data will help determine whether the recent moderation in headline inflation is becoming more broad-based or whether services and domestic cost pressures remain stubborn.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The labour market remains relatively resilient, but there are early signs of moderation. Australia&#8217;s unemployment rate was 4.4% in June, while employment increased by approximately 76,300 people and the participation rate rose to 67.0%. The increase in employment provides the RBA with room to keep policy restrictive, although rising unemployment or a significant decline in employment growth could strengthen the case for eventually easing monetary policy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Wage growth will remain an important indicator for the September decision. The latest available Wage Price Index showed wages increasing 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and 3.3% year-on-year in the March quarter. The June-quarter wage data is scheduled for release on 19 August 2026, meaning the RBA will have this information available before its September meeting. A stronger-than-expected wage result could reinforce concerns about persistent domestic inflation, while softer wage growth would support the argument that inflation is gradually returning toward target.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Household demand and economic growth will remain closely monitored. Higher borrowing costs continue to place pressure on mortgage holders and discretionary household spending. At the same time, improving real incomes and easing headline inflation could gradually support consumption later in the year. The RBA will therefore need to balance the risk of keeping rates restrictive for too long against the risk of easing policy before underlying inflation has been sufficiently contained.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Global economic and commodity-market conditions remain an important risk for Australia. Developments in energy prices, geopolitical tensions and China&#8217;s economic performance could have significant implications for Australia&#8217;s inflation and export outlook. A renewed increase in energy prices could raise Australia&#8217;s inflation outlook, while weaker Chinese demand could weigh on commodity exports, business activity and overall economic growth.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Financial markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to incoming inflation and employment data. With the cash rate already at 4.35%, markets will closely assess whether the RBA is approaching the end of its tightening cycle or whether another increase could become necessary. A sustained decline in underlying inflation and weaker domestic demand would strengthen expectations for eventual rate cuts, while persistent services inflation, strong wages or renewed energy-price pressures could keep the possibility of another hike alive.<br \/><br \/><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 28 to 29 September 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Medium Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from NZD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Kiwi enters Thursday under pressure despite the RBNZ&#8217;s 25-bp rate hike to 2.75%. The hike was already largely priced in, while the bank&#8217;s cautious guidance reduced expectations for aggressive future tightening. Meanwhile, a stronger USD and elevated Treasury yields are adding further pressure to NZD\/USD. For today&#8217;s session, traders should pay close attention to US Unemployment Claims and ISM Services PMI, as stronger-than-expected US data could reinforce USD strength and push NZD\/USD lower, while weaker US data could provide the Kiwi with some relief.<br \/><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.75% at its 2 September 2026 Monetary Policy Statement meeting. The decision was reached by consensus, marking another step in the Bank&#8217;s tightening cycle as policymakers seek to bring inflation sustainably back toward the 2% midpoint.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation remains the key reason behind the RBNZ&#8217;s tightening stance. Annual consumer inflation increased to 4.1% in the June 2026 quarter, driven largely by higher fuel prices associated with the Middle East conflict. The RBNZ expects inflation to remain above 3% for the remainder of 2026 before returning to the 1\u20133% target range next year and moving toward the 2% midpoint.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Energy prices and geopolitical developments remain an important upside risk to inflation. Higher petrol and diesel prices have increased transportation and production costs, feeding into prices for goods and services such as food and air travel. The RBNZ remains concerned that renewed increases in energy prices could make inflation more persistent than currently expected.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The RBNZ indicated that further OCR increases may still be required this year, but policy is not on a predetermined path. Future decisions will depend on the balance of risks to medium-term inflation, including inflation expectations, domestic price pressures, economic activity and the response of households and businesses to tighter financial conditions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>New Zealand&#8217;s economic recovery appears to have resumed, although growth remains uneven. Economic activity was lacklustre during the June quarter as higher fuel costs reduced household purchasing power. However, stronger export prices and resilient demand from trading partners are supporting income growth and investment, particularly in export-oriented sectors.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Household demand and the housing market remain areas of weakness. Weak income growth, job insecurity and relatively flat house prices continue to weigh on household spending and residential investment, particularly in Auckland and Wellington. The RBNZ nevertheless expects the recovery to strengthen gradually as inflation declines and purchasing power improves.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The labour market remains relatively soft, but the Bank expects conditions to improve as economic activity strengthens. High unemployment and subdued household demand remain concerns, but stronger economic growth should gradually encourage businesses to increase hiring. This creates a delicate balance for the RBNZ between containing inflation and avoiding unnecessary weakness in employment and output.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The RBNZ continues to see strong export performance as an important support for the economy. New Zealand&#8217;s agricultural and other export sectors are benefiting from resilient global demand and strong commodity prices, helping offset weakness in domestic consumption and residential investment.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 28 October 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Medium Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from JPY today?<br \/><br \/><\/strong>Rising expectations of a September BOJ rate hike are supporting the yen, while strong U.S. yields and safe-haven demand are supporting the dollar. After Wednesday&#8217;s sharp yen rally, traders should pay close attention to U.S. Unemployment Claims and ISM Services PMI today, as stronger-than-expected U.S. data could push <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/USDJPY\/?exchange=ICMARKETS\" title=\"\">USD\/JPY <\/a>back toward 160, while disappointing data could reinforce the yen&#8217;s recovery. With Japan having already intervened heavily, 160 remains a major psychological and intervention-risk level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained the short-term policy rate at 1.00% at its 30\u201331 July 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting. The decision reflected confidence that Japan&#8217;s economy continues to recover moderately, while policymakers judged that further tightening should proceed gradually as they assess incoming data and the sustainability of inflation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The BOJ continues to guide the uncollateralized overnight call rate at around 1.00%, emphasizing that future policy adjustments will remain data-dependent. The Bank reiterated that any additional rate increases will depend on sustained wage growth, inflation remaining durably around or above the 2% target, stable financial markets, and resilient domestic demand rather than following a predetermined path.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Bank will continue reducing its purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) in line with its previously announced tapering plan while maintaining flexibility to conduct market operations if excessive volatility threatens financial stability. Policymakers also remain attentive to sharp movements in the yen and their potential impact on inflation and financial conditions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Japan&#8217;s economy continues to expand at a moderate pace, supported by firm domestic consumption, strong corporate investment, improving labor market conditions, and recovering global demand. However, uncertainty surrounding global trade, geopolitical developments, and external manufacturing activity continues to pose downside risks to the growth outlook.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Underlying inflation continues to strengthen. While headline inflation has moderated somewhat due to easing energy prices, core inflation remains above the BOJ&#8217;s 2% objective, supported by broad-based services inflation, rising labor costs, and stronger pricing behavior among firms. The BOJ now sees upside risks to medium-term inflation from persistent wage growth and structural price-setting changes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Domestic inflationary pressures remain supported by robust wage settlements, persistent labor shortages, and continued pass-through of higher labor costs into services prices. At the same time, policymakers are closely monitoring the effects of yen depreciation, which could accelerate imported inflation if sustained, even as lower commodity and energy prices provide some offset.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The BOJ expects real GDP growth to remain moderate over the near term as accommodative financial conditions, rising household incomes, and business investment continue to support activity. Nevertheless, policymakers acknowledge that tighter global financial conditions, weaker external demand, and geopolitical uncertainty could temporarily restrain growth.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Looking ahead, the BOJ maintains that if inflation continues to stabilize around its 2% objective alongside sustained wage gains and economic expansion, further gradual policy normalization remains appropriate. Financial markets generally expect another 25-basis-point rate increase later in 2026, although the timing will depend on incoming economic and inflation data.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 17 to 18 September 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Medium Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The combination of Middle East supply risks + falling U.S. crude inventories + uncertainty around Hormuz is currently supportive of oil prices. However, traders should be careful chasing the upside because any improvement in U.S.-Iran relations or evidence that oil shipments through Hormuz are normalizing could quickly remove the geopolitical premium. EIA&#8217;s broader outlook also expects Brent prices to eventually ease as Hormuz traffic improves and shut-in production returns.<br \/><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Strong Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Risk Warning:<\/strong>&nbsp;Trading in securities involves significant risk. Prices may fluctuate and securities can become entirely valueless. You may incur losses that exceed your potential profits, and in some cases, losses may exceed the amount you have deposited. Securities, futures, options, and contracts for differences are complex financial instruments and are not suitable for all investors. Engaging in such transactions requires a sound understanding of the associated risks. Please read and ensure you fully understand our&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/cdn.ic.com\/uploads\/FSA\/Risk_Disclosure_Notice_FSA.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Risk Disclosure<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our leverage is dynamic and may change at any time. Such changes may affect your positions and margin requirements. You are responsible for monitoring your positions and maintaining sufficient margin at all times<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IC &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 03 September 2026 What happened [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":84953,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[196,215,339],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89596"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89596"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89596\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":89631,"href":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89596\/revisions\/89631"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/84953"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89596"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89596"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89596"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}